TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
There is a deal...maybe...with Iran. The market sees this as a calming influence, with yields and the dollar dropping a tiny bit. This is suggestive that even with a deal, there remain material structural concerns in the market and the economy. Labor and price levels remain top of mind. And the notion that this deal may not have staying power given the long time frame and significant cost to implement.
Stay tuned as always for more updates all week!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of June 15, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.46 | ↓ Down |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 99.57 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of May 26, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 44.8 | ↓ Down |
| Conference Board4 | 93.1 | → Flat |
| GDP as of June 9, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.3% | ↑ Up |
| Unemployment as of June 5, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.3% | → Flat |
| Inflation as of May 28, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.3% | ↑ Up |
| Containerized Freight Index as of June 1, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 138.7 | ↓ Down |